Sunday, January 6, 2008

Potpourri of Republican Misinformation

Michael Gerson's recent column in the Washington Post is a regular potpourri of Republican misinformation. As such, it provides an excellent opportunity to take on the canards du jour.

Iraq
He starts out with the Republican line that things are improving because casualties are down in Iraq, and there are portions of the nation that are relatively more calm. This is somewhat true as it goes, but that does not mean that we are making great strides in Iraq. On the contrary, this reduction in casualties has been accomplished in the same manner that all reductions in casualties have been accomplished by Republican presidents since Eisenhower, namely, virtual unconditional surrender to the enemy.

It has become clear that the reduction in casualties has been effected through the novel counterinsurgency plan of surrendering to the insurgency. Rather than creating a monopoly of military forces in the central government, or even in regional governments, the United States has gone from tribe to village paying off all and sundry with cash and weapons not to attack U. S. troops. They are also asked to fight the Al Queda. One assumes that the U. S. military will bring in O. J. Simpson to lecture the sundry on the techniques he has been using to track down the real killers. Al Queda was never in Iraq, although the brand was appropriated by a small group of fighters.

The reality is that Iraq is ruled by a Shiite government that seems to differ from Saddam Hussein only in that they only control a small portion of Iraq, and that they are much more willing to work with our enemies to degrade our strategic position in the region. The Iraq war has already spread into Turkey and threatens to spread throughout the region. Iraq is still leaking tens of thousands of refugees who themselves have the potential of destabilizing neighboring regimes.

Meanwhile the cost of the war is growing as measured in loss of strategic power by the United States. Korea, which actually had nuclear weapons, which they didn't even need given their ability to destroy Seoul with conventional weapons, has extracted meaningful concessions from the United States and already broken its promises again. What are we going to do about it when our army is busy surrendering in Iraq?

Africa
The Bush administration may have denied the reality of global warming though almost every orifice, but strangely the military prepared for the predicted water wars by strengthening its position in Africa. Unfortunately, China, our likely adversary in Africa, has also been preparing the ground for future conflict in Africa. With an unencumbered army and economy that hasn't been wrecked with irrational tax cuts. China has been buying friends fast.

Iran
Then there is Iran. Bush has rushed headlong into conflict with Iran as if he had an extra army to engage in a second war. Perhaps unique in the history of warfare, the Bush administration prepared for the war they had planned in Iraq from before his election, by trying to reduce the size of our military. Initial victories can be achieved by air power, but occupation requires boots on the ground. We used to pretend we were prepared to fight two and a half wars. The reality is we can barely fight a half war.

Not only do we not have the military resources to effect regime change in Iran, but our troops are also effectively hostages in Iraq. If Bush attacks Iran or if Israel attacks Iran, you can be sure that Iran will attack US troops in Iraq. It is only logical to assume that Iran learned the lesson of the outcomes of Iraq and Korea, and understood that it is much better if your weapons of mass destruction are not imaginary. Who knows what form the Iranian attack on US troops would take, but devastating losses in Iraq would truly hurt the strategic position of the United States. New troops take time to train and we have, in effect, no reserves.

Taxes
On the tax issue, I am always amazed by the Marie Antoinette quality of Republican rhetoric on the issue. They point to an economy that has expanded though it has not benefited the vast majority of the population. Now almost everyone predicts a recession. The reality is that democracy simply can not continue in a country were all the economic benefit accrues to a small minority. Worse, the huge deficits caused by the tax cuts have severely weakened our economic clout with the rest of the world especially vis a vis China. As mentioned above, China is winning the war in Africa before the first shots are fired.

Education
Finally the Republican message on “No Child Left Behind” is perhaps the most disingenuous of all. No Child Left Behind was designed to destroy our public school system. At its core, it is merely a system of defunding schools. It requires universal competence which is almost by definition unattainable. Republicans make little effort to hide their desire to destroy the public school system which they oppose both on principal and because it is a source of union power. Republicans often speak of the need to get rid of bad teachers, but bad teachers simply are not the problem. Teaching is a high-stress, low-paying job that has enormous turnover. The problem is not getting rid of bad teachers; it is keeping any teachers at all. Of course Republicans oppose increasing the amount spent on teacher-pay but they would like to increase the pay of the best performing teachers at the expense of less well-performing teachers. The result would be those with poorly performing teachers would be left with no teachers at all.

There is a reality problem, but it is with Republicans.

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